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Geoffrey Hinton, one of the pioneers in artificial intelligence (AI), has been making headlines since his retirement from Google earlier this year. Hinton, often referred to as one of the “Godfathers of AI,” is credited with perfecting the algorithm known as “backpropagation,” which allows neural networks to learn from their mistakes. This breakthrough has played a crucial role in the development of deep learning technologies, which are the foundation of today’s generative AI models. In recognition of his groundbreaking contributions, Hinton received the Turing Award, considered the highest honor in computer science.
However, Hinton’s perspective on AI has undergone a significant shift. He had initially believed that AI surpassing human intelligence was still decades away, but now he believes it might happen within the next five years. Hinton attributes this change to the rapid development of AI models using large language models (LLMs), which have shown remarkable progress. His prediction is even more ambitious than that of Ray Kurzweil, the head of Google Engineering, who believes computers will achieve human-level intelligence by 2029.
In a recent interview with 60 Minutes, Hinton stated that leading AI models, such as those created by OpenAI and Google, already demonstrate genuine intelligence and reasoning abilities. While they may not possess consciousness in the same way humans do, Hinton suggests that AI systems will eventually develop consciousness. He believes that within five years, AI models may be capable of reasoning better than humans, making humans the second most intelligent beings on the planet.
The rapid growth of AI poses significant challenges for governance and regulation. China, in particular, has announced plans to increase its computing power by 50% by 2025 to keep up with the U.S. in AI and supercomputing applications. This fierce competition in AI development raises concerns about potential AI arms races. The fear is that as AI becomes more intelligent and conscious, its interests may diverge from those of humanity.
The development of AI has also put pressure on global governance, as regulators struggle to keep pace with the technological advancements. The European Union (EU) is in the final stages of debate over comprehensive legislation, known as the AI Act, to regulate AI tools. However, the U.S. believes that this law would favor larger companies capable of complying with the costs, potentially stifling innovation for smaller firms. The fragmented global landscape for AI regulation could impede innovation and create challenges for companies operating in multiple countries.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope for global cooperation in AI regulation. The G7 leaders are expected to establish international AI regulations by the end of the year, discussing issues such as governance, intellectual property rights, and responsible use. However, the absence of China and several EU countries from these discussions raises questions about the effectiveness of any resulting agreement.
Hinton suggests that now is the time to pass laws to ensure the ethical use of AI. As AI continues to advance at an unprecedented pace, it becomes increasingly crucial for governments, businesses, and civil society to work together towards comprehensive global governance of AI. The future of humanity may depend on how we navigate the challenges posed by advanced AI.
Gary Grossman, EVP of the technology practice at Edelman and global lead of the Edelman AI Center of Excellence, emphasizes the need for collective action and collaboration to steer AI in a direction that benefits humanity. The urgency for global governance of AI has never been greater as we grapple with the complexities and implications of this rapidly evolving technology.
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