Scientists from the University of Copenhagen and the University of Victoria have discovered a formula to predict the occurrence of monstrous rogue waves, using AI to analyze 700 years’ worth of wave data.
In a study published in the journal PNAS, the team mapped the causal variables that create rogue waves and used artificial intelligence to gather them in a model which can calculate the probability of rogue wave formation. This research opens the door for public authorities, weather services, and other interested parties to calculate the probability of rogue waves.
The study introduces a mathematical model that deciphers when and how rogue waves materialize, integrating diverse data on ocean movements, sea states, water depths, and bathymetric information. By tapping into vast amounts of big data, the researchers can now predict the likelihood of encountering these maritime monsters at any time during sea travel.
The study also highlights the prevalence of abnormal waves, stating that around 100,000 waves in the dataset can be defined as rogue waves, equivalent to around one monster wave occurring every day at any random location in the ocean. The practical implications of this research extend to the shipping industry, allowing shipping companies to assess the risk of encountering rogue waves along planned routes and make informed decisions that enhance safety.
The extensive dataset used by the researchers spans an impressive 700 years, offering insights into wave height and sea state. The study challenges the belief that rogue waves primarily result from the combination of two waves stealing energy from each other, identifying “linear superposition” as the dominant factor.
The algorithm developed by the researchers provides a tool for shipping companies to assess the risk of encountering rogue waves along planned routes, allowing them to make informed decisions that enhance safety. The research findings have the potential to transform the safety landscape of shipping and oil rigs by predicting the occurrence of these maritime giants.
